The United States, the most influential international power in terms of world peace and security, has greatly diminished its ability to help resolve conflicts. On the other hand, the power of middle power countries is increasing. Because of this, all deadly conflicts are becoming more complicated. This year's US presidential election could have a major impact on the Middle East and Ukraine wars and the global economy. If the Republican candidate Donald Trump comes back to power, the picture of the war in Ukraine and the Middle East may change. Trump can increase communication with Moscow by making Israel more visible and Kiev on top. A world of more conflict than peace awaits the next US president. This war must be faced and worked on. News from CNN and AFP.
The US election has a huge impact on the world's socio-economic conditions. Democrats are generous with government spending when they are in power. They formulate policies that redistribute wealth in society. Republicans, on the other hand, are known as pro-business. They cut taxes and give opportunities to the rich. But the reality is—for much of the last century, the US economy and stock market did well under Democratic Party rule.
University of Chicago professors Lubos Pastor and Pietro Veronci researched the data from 1927 to 2015 - the growth rate of US gross domestic product (GDP) during Democratic presidents was 4.86 percent. On the other hand, the average growth rate in the United States under Republican presidents was 1.7 percent. At the same time, the equity risk premium of the US stock market was 10.9 percent higher under Democratic presidents than under Republicans. From 1999 to 2015 it was even higher, 17.4 percent. It is the excess dividend earned by investing in the stock market at a rate higher than the risk-free rate.
Donald Trump has vowed to make America 'great again' if elected president. That is why Trump has announced in advance the adoption of the policy of 'America first' in terms of economy and trade. As part of this, he has threatened to launch a 'trade war' against the US's adversary countries during the election campaign in the last few months. Especially in the economy, China, the main rival of the United States, is the main target of Trump's threats, but his influence is far-reaching. Economic analysts and world trade circles are warning that if the trade war starts between the United States and China under Trump, its reaction will be felt in other countries of the world. Trump has done it before. China's economy has already lost momentum. Also, if the trade war is renewed, the country's economy will be affected more. This will affect the various Southeast Asian countries that are related to China or work as contractors of China.
In addition, Trump openly said that the president should have the opportunity to intervene in important decisions such as setting interest rates. If elected in this situation, it is naturally assumed that he will turn his nose to the decision of the Federal Reserve. Trump has had an argument with the Fed chairman in the past as well. If elected, Trump interferes with the Federal Reserve's independence, particularly in setting interest rates, which will have an impact on economies and financial systems around the world. Investments in developing countries are largely dependent on Fed interest rates.
The share price of Trump's organization suddenly increased by 12 percent: Just before the US presidential election, the share price of Donald Trump's social media company rose by 12 percent. According to the report of the US media CNN on Monday, the reason behind the increase in shares of Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT) is apparently not known. The company's share price quadrupled for five consecutive weeks before plunging 41 percent in three days. Analysts say the idea that Trump could be re-elected may have worked among investors. While Trump used the social media platform Twitter (now X) to share administration information during his first term as president, he will use his own social media if elected. However, if Kamala Harris is elected, the commercial importance of Truth Social may be greatly reduced.
