Kamala Harris or Donald Trump – Many analysts feel that the outcome of the US election could become an important factor for Bangladesh as well.
The discussion has intensified especially around a tweet by Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Chief Advisor to the Government of Bangladesh. Muhammad Yunus has had good relations with US politicians in the past, especially Democratic leaders.
Trump-Harris, who will win what will happen to Bangladesh? How much of a factor could India be here? Dr. What role will the relationship between Yunus and US politicians play in this regard?
What if Trump or Harris wins?
Democrat administration emphasizes on issues like democratic process, human rights around the world. If Kamala Harris or the Democrats come to power, it is considered that there is a greater chance of easy business and cooperation for Bangladesh.
According to Michael Kugelman, an expert on South Asia at the U.S.-based Uelson Center and author, if Kamala Harris wins, the current relationship will remain consistent and harmonious, but the situation could be different if Trump becomes president.
He thinks that Bangladesh is one of the countries in South Asia, where the relationship between the two countries may change based on the results of the US elections.
He said, "I don't think Donald Trump will support the current structure of the relationship, where the United States is providing development, reform and other assistance or support to Bangladesh to ensure the stability of Bangladesh." Trump and his administration will not be interested in a relationship that emphasizes US aid to Bangladesh.
Former Ambassador of Bangladesh to the United States, M. Humayun Kabir, thinks that the place of American humanitarian cooperation in the world may decrease if Trump becomes president.
In that case, he sees the Rohingya issue as a place of uncertainty for Bangladesh, because a large part of the aid that comes to Rohingyas in Bangladesh through the United Nations is from the United States.
Donald Trump has not exactly been seen as a traditional US president in American history. There is also uncertainty surrounding how he considers foreign policy positions.
Usually, there is no major change in foreign policy even if there is a change of president in America. Mehnaz Momen, professor of Texas A&M University in the United States, said that behind this there is a strong role of US organizations or structures.
"We've seen Trump talking about changing the institution in some of the campaigns," he said. That could be a big change.
However, he thinks that there are doubts about how far the matter will be possible or have an impact on foreign policy.
Donald Trump's tweets and India
Recently, a tweet by Donald Trump regarding the persecution of minorities has created a discussion in Bangladesh. But analysts see it as a political strategy to attract American Hindu voters in the elections rather than a future policy.
Shafiqul Alam, the press secretary of the interim government's chief adviser, said that they think that some lobby groups may have wanted to influence it from the point of internal American politics, and this statement came in that light.
There is also talk that lobby group means Awami League or India.
Although America was initially in a strong position regarding the acceptability of the previous elections in Bangladesh, later India's support to the government of Bangladesh became a factor.
Former ambassador Humayun Kabir said, India has played a role here before, we can roughly guess that they have a role in Trump's tweet.
In August, Narendra Modi expressed concern over minorities in a phone call to the US, but it did not receive much attention. Although Kamala Harris herself is of Indian origin, the position of the Democrat camp is unlikely to change in this regard.
However, Narendra Modi's relationship with Donald Trump is quite good. Even in September this year, Donald Trump praised Modi as a 'wonderful man'.
If Trump wins, he thinks that India will want to play a role in Bangladesh's bilateral relations. In that case, if the relationship with India is not normal, there will be an apprehension of some kind of negative element from India's side, he thinks.
Many people mention the tendency of seeing Bangladesh through India's eyes in many cases in the US foreign policy. Mehnaz Momen believes that the way Trump believes in individualism, he will support Narendra Modi like Vladimir Putin. In that case, he sees the possibility that India's influence will increase if Trump becomes president.
Of course, if Kamala Harris wins. Michael Kugelman thinks there is an opportunity to increase the differences between India and the United States on the Bangladesh issue due to the good relationship with Muhammad Yunus.
Dr. Relationship with Muhammad Yunus
Recently, the press secretary of the chief adviser said that the Republicans and Democrats, along with the senior leaders of the two parties. As Muhammad Yunus is well connected and has friends in both camps, the outcome of this election will not affect the relationship between the two countries.
Although it is said that the Bangladesh-US relationship will not be affected by the government, Kugelman believes that the reality may be different if Trump comes to power.
He said Yunus had criticized Donald Trump in the past when he was elected in 2016 and their political ideals or ideologies differed.
While speaking in 2016 at a university named HEC Paris, Dr. Yunus described Trump's victory as a 'solar eclipse' or a dark time, according to Heck's website.
In addition, at another event at that time, when asked what he would like to say to Trump, he told NBC News that instead of building a 'wall', he should build a 'bridge' and liberalize his views. Yunus.
According to Kugelman, Dr. Kamala Harris won. Yunus will be an asset to US-Bangladesh relations, as there will be a comfort zone with Harris, as with the Biden administration. But if Trump wins, that relationship will face challenges.
Mehnaz Momen points out that the interim government of Bangladesh needs to establish a place of credibility, regardless of whether Harris or Trump is the president.
He said that after the change of the political pot, the next election will be held even if it is late, how it will be held, what will be the steps, i.e. a roadmap should be presented. He felt it was important to ensure the current government's image of legitimacy and grounds for support.
However, Humayun Kabir and Mehnaz Momen do not think that there will be an opportunity for America to worry too much about Bangladesh in the current situation of the world.
Because the Russia-Ukraine war or the Israel-Gaza war in the Middle East, these big issues will have much more American attention. Due to these two wars the whole world is going through an unstable situation. Apart from this, there is also the issue of China or Iran. They do not think that there will be an opportunity to think about Bangladesh in front of them.
Rather, many analysts believe that America will pay more attention to its own interests or needs in all aspects.
What is the place of American interests in Bangladesh?
There is a place of interest in the relationship between Bangladesh and the United States in various aspects such as trade, strategic, geopolitical. The United States refers to itself as a development partner of Bangladesh.
Being at the junction of Asia with South East Asia and the Bay of Bengal, it has a geopolitical interest.
Humayun Kabir said, recently we are thinking about diversification from the military side as well. In that case, the US would be interested in selling weapons.
Considering Bangladesh as an 'emerging market', he believes that the United States has a place of interest in trade. He cites large power plant equipment, Boeing aircraft, gas or LNG as examples.
Apart from this, many people of Bangladesh live in America and go to study. There is also a place of importance in human-to-human relations, technologically even if it is to use a credit card or a computer, the United States benefits in one way or another.
In foreign policy, the equation of interests with other countries of the world or with neighboring countries is generally important. However, for America, in the case of Bangladesh, the new equation is the relationship with Professor Yunus. These various factors will determine the future relationship of Bangladesh with the United States.
